Though the U.S. Travel Association's Travel Trends Index reported a 3.2 percent increase of travel to and within the U.S. year-over-year in January, a major slowdown is expected. According to the TTI, weakening economics, trade tensions, and waning consumer and business confidence are the culprits.
Despite the partial government shutdown's impact, 2019 started off strong for air travel: January marked the industry's 109th straight month of overall expansion, while international inbound, domestic leisure and domestic business each reported growth. However, the TTI predicts those three categories will atrophy over the next six months. That could be problematic as the nation looks to regulate its share of the competitive international travel market.
"As indicators of global growth and trade activity begin to cool, so too will international inbound travel," said U.S. travel senior vice president for research David Huether, who offered some ways to reverse the decline: "Certain legislative initiatives — namely Brand USA's long-term reauthorization and the inclusion of more qualified countries in the Visa Waiver Program — can improve U.S. competitiveness in the global international travel market," he said.
Business travel is expected to increase at the slowed rate of 1.6 percent through July. Leisure travel, on the other hand, is forecasted to grow at a rate of 2 percent as confidence levels stabilize.
Meanwhile, the high cost of the U.S. dollar is expected to harm international inbound travel, which the TTI expects to see grow at a sluggish rate of 2.2 percent.
The TTI is based on public- and private-sector source data that is subject to revision by the source agency.
