A new forecast from the U.S. Travel Association on travel to and within the United States through 2027 shows domestic business travel and international inbound travel will continue to remain below prepandemic levels in 2024.
The forecast, prepared by Tourism Economics, was released just days after U.S. Travel revealed the findings of a global competitiveness report conducted by Euromonitor International that found the U.S. ranked 17th out of 18 top markets for travel due to decades of underinvestment, and a lack of focus and coordination from federal policymakers.
“While we inch back to prepandemic travel numbers, other countries are actively advancing strategies to gain international visitors and are now ahead of the United States in the race to win back the global travel market,” said U.S. Travel Association president and CEO Geoff Freeman. “The federal government can and must enact specific policies to jumpstart a more seamless, efficient and globally competitive travel industry.”
Breaking down the forecast
Business travel is expected to grow in 2024, albeit at a slower rate. Volume in the sector is expected to end the year at 95 percent of 2019 levels — up from 89 percent recovered in 2023. Slowing economic growth should hinder domestic business travel’s recovery, with a full comeback in volume not expected until 2026. Domestic business travel spending is not expected to reach prepandemic levels until after 2027.
International travel to the United States is growing quickly, but still is far from a full prepandemic recovery. An expected global macroeconomic slowdown, a strong dollar, and lengthy visa wait times could inhibit future growth, with volume reaching 98 percent of 2019 levels in 2024 (up from 84 percent recovered in 2023), and achieving a full recovery in 2025. Spending levels, when adjusted for inflation, are not expected to recover until 2026.
Other countries that directly compete with the United States have recovered their to prepandemic visitation levels more quickly, and some — such as France and Spain — have even increased their share of the global travel market. Meanwhile, U.S. global market share is declining (see related story).
Domestic leisure growth slowed through three quarters of 2023 as consumer spending fell, hindered by higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and the restart of student-loan repayments, but the sector had achieved a full recovery to prepandemic levels in 2022.
Action is needed to grow travel
Several policies that are within the federal government’s control could accelerate travel growth and increase global competitiveness, says U.S Travel. The government needs to:
- Lower U.S. visitor visa–interview wait times, which approach an average of 400 days in top visa-requiring inbound markets.
- Reduce customs wait times at U.S. airports and other ports of entry that are experiencing excessive delays.
- Accelerate the deployment of biometric entry-exit security-screening systems at U.S. airports.
- Improve the overall air-travel experience through a long-term Federal Aviation Administration reauthorization bill.
- Prioritize travel industry growth, as other countries have done.
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