A new 2024 forecast from the Global Business Travel Association predicts global business travel spending will reach $1.48 trillion by the end of the year, an increase on 2019 spending, which was a previous record at $1.43 trillion. Additionally, by 2028, the organization's GBTA Business Travel Index projects the industry will surpass the $2 trillion mark in terms of spending.
According to the GBTA, relative stability in the global economy has continued to drive growth which, along with lingering pent-up demand, has provided reassurance for CEOs and CFOs to get their people back on the road for business meetings. Many top business travel markets around the world have returned to or are nearing prepandemic levels, reinforcing the momentum of recovery and boosting spending.
However, the outlook for economic and business travel growth presents a balance of both potential upside factors and downside risks.
Top-level findings
Unveiled yesterday at the GBTA Convention 2024 in Atlanta, in front of more than 5,300 attendees, the 16th edition of the GBTA BTI is an annual forecast of business travel spending and growth covering 72 countries and 44 industries. The GBTA BTI also includes survey data and analysis this year from 4,100 business travelers across four regions, representing insights from employee travelers regarding their business travel preferences, behaviors and spending.
“We are witnessing the expected rebound in the sector, reflecting the resilience and adaptability of businesses and the value of business travel worldwide,” said Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA. “With projected spending expected to continue to increase through 2028, the future of business travel looks promising. However, we must remain vigilant and adaptive to potential headwinds in this period of stabilization, as factors such as changing economic conditions, technological advancements and sustainability developments will also shape the sector ahead.”
Global business travel spending is anticipated to increase 11.1 percent in 2024, after significant years in 2022 and 2023 of 30 to 47 percent growth year over year. Growth is expected to continue to moderate gradually, resulting in an annual compound growth rate of 6.95 percent from 2025 to 2028.
In 2023, the business travel industry had recovered approximately $675 billion of the $770 billion lost in 2020, according to GBTA BTI analysis, achieving 93 percent of the prepandemic peak of $1.43 trillion by the end of 2023. The sector experienced a significant resurgence in 2023, with spending growing by 30 percent compared to 2022, reaching $1.3 trillion.
Spending highlights from the outlook
- Global business travel spending is expected to recover to its prepandemic total of $1.48 trillion in 2024, fueled by more favorable economic conditions than expected in 2022 and 2023. Still, the report notes that while recovery has been impressive, when adjusted for inflation, spending levels are anticipated to lag prepandemic highs over the coming years, implying that business travel volumes will remain below prepandemic levels as well.
- The estimated breakdown of the $1.34 trillion in 2023 business travel expenditures includes $501 billion for lodging, $282 billion for air travel, $245 billion for food and beverage, $165 billion for ground transportation, and $142 billion for other travel expenses.
- Recovery in business travel continues to vary by region. Asia Pacific emerged as the fastest-growing region in 2023 (36 percent), followed by Western Europe (33 percent) and North America (25 percent). The recovery bounce back was led in 2023 by the United States, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America, all achieving 100 percent or more of 2019 spending numbers. For 2024, China and the U.S. are forecast to continue to lead as the top two markets, respectively, for overall spending.
- Business travel spending also continues to differ across industries. The financial-and-insurance activities sector is projected to experience the most significant expansion (72 percent) in spending through 2028. Conversely, the retail trade (41 percent), and the agriculture, forestry and fishing (32 percent) sectors are anticipated to see the least growth during this period.
- Factors that could impact business travel’s longer-term forecast include persistent inflation, China’s slower recovery, geopolitical tensions, industry workforce challenges and natural disasters. Increased focus on corporate sustainability also has the potential to impact the sector, demonstrating the vital importance of coordinated action across the industry for business travel’s future.
- Potential upside impacts for the business travel sector include ongoing economic stability; technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence; and stronger-than-expected economic growth in key markets like the U.S. and India.
Practices of the business travelers themselves
- GBTA’s survey of 4,100 business travelers across 28 countries and four regions (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America), revealed an increase in overall business travel, with international travel remaining below average. Sixty-four percent of business travelers globally report increased spending on business travel compared with 2023. However, more than one-third (37 percent) said they have experienced more restrictive travel policies since before the pandemic.
- Business travelers globally estimate their own spending, on average, amounts to $834 per person based on their last business trip. Lodging accounts for $312, on average, and food and beverage is $153. Air travel averages $176, while ground transportation ($103) and miscellaneous expenses ($89) round out the total.
- A majority of survey respondents (81 percent) reported that their most recent business trip was very (46 percent) or moderately (35 percent) worthwhile in achieving their business objectives. When asked about their most recent business trip, the top purpose of travel among all global business travelers is attending seminars/training followed by conventions/conferences.
- Compared with 2019, 76 percent of respondents traveled the same or more for business travel. Those traveling more (28 percent) outpaced those who traveled less (20 percent) over the same period. Although overall business travel has increased, both international and group travel remain, on average, lower than 2019 levels. Two-fifths (40 percent) of the trips taken are three-to-five-night stays, while two-night stays account for one-third (32 percent). Additionally, 58 percent said they extended work trips for leisure or vacation about the same amount (41 percent) or more frequently (17 percent) than previously.
- When asked about their greatest priorities while traveling for work, maximizing comfort (43 percent) and minimizing cost (41 percent) are on the same level globally, with 16 percent saying reducing carbon emissions is a priority. European travelers (22 percent) are more likely to view reducing their carbon footprint as important, compared with other regions.
- To pay for business travel, nearly two-thirds (61 percent) of global business travelers across all regions are given a corporate credit card, a practice that is significantly higher among North American business travelers, as nearly a third put 100 percent of their trip expenses on their corporate card.
- Three in five (59 percent) of business travelers surveyed have uploaded their corporate credit card to a mobile wallet and approximately 87 percent report they use their mobile wallet for at least 10 percent of their business travel transactions.
